Season 19 Playoff Predictions

Since it got mentioned on the boards, I figured I'd take a stab. Before I get into this, I'd like to mention how little research I've done here. I mean, almost nothing. So, you know, don't feel slighted.

NL Playoff Teams

NL North: Iowa City Bees
NL East: Toledo Muddy Webfoots
NL South: Monterrey Victorious Secrets
NL West: Wichita Wastrels
Wild Cards: Kansas City Kings, Portland Timbers

NL Champion: Monterrey Victorious Secrets

Additional Analysis: The NL East is the toughest to call, as Kansas City is still very good. If Toledo doesn't take the division this season, they will in the next few. Both teams are one or two stars away from competing with Monterrey right now (or, I should say, Monterrey once Vic Spehr comes back). Wichita dominated the NL West all last season before Portland (that's my team) barely overtook them at the end, but they're on the rise and the Timbers are fading, though still dangerous. The NL North is pretty wide open, but I think Iowa City and Pittsburgh have the best shots (though Pittsburgh is OLD).

AL Playoff Teams

AL North: Cleveland Cans of Corn
AL East: Washington D.C. Nationals
AL South: Charlotte Sturgeon
AL West: San Francisco Seals
Wild Cards: Columbus Clippers, Syracuse Excuse

AL Champion: Charlotte Sturgeon

Additional Analysis: The NL North is probably Feller's best division right now, with two WS contenders in Columbus and Cleveland, but Tacoma and Seattle aren't bad either, and would probably be playoff teams in the National League. Washington DC is as good as ever, and Syracuse doesn't have the offense to win the East right now, even if they're very good. Charlotte has started slow, but they're easily the best team in the South. San Francisco's young talent puts them on top of the weak AL West, but both LA and Helena stand a fair shot. I gave Charlotte the AL Champ nod because I think they're due, but there's too much talent in the AL to make a clear call.

Primary World Series Contenders: Charlotte, Washington D.C., Cleveland, Columbus
Longshot Contenders: Monterrey, Toledo, Syracuse, Kansas City
Best Pitching Staffs: Charlotte, Washington D.C., Monterrey
Best Lineups: Charlotte, Cleveland, Washington D.C. (I really just threw these out there.)
Up and Coming Teams: Toledo, Wichita, Philadelphia
Teams on the Decline: Pittsburgh, Portland, Columbus (sorry, job, they're aging.)

A Sort-Of Counterpoint: Hall of Famers

First, I should say MattFurjan has better access to stats (have you seen his Google database?) and he understands sabermetrics better than I do. Still, he left Harry Martinez off the list AND HE SHOULD BE INSTITUTIONALIZED FOR THAT.

So let's run through the top HoF candidates in my opinion:

Rock Moore (C) - He's a lock. I won't even get into the reasons, because I shouldn't have to explain why.

Harry Martinez (1B/DH) - Granted, no defensive dynamo, but the guy is the all-time leader in HRs. THE ALL-TIME LEADER IN HRS. He also won two MVPs. Everyone has their own opinion about what being a Hall of Famer means, but as much as I appreciate the value of the stat revolution in better determining player value, the "fame" part still has to mean something, and the most famous stat in baseball is home runs.

Matt Michaels (CF) - 2 MVPs, 8x AS, 6x SS, 1 GG in CF, and a couple rings. Probably the best CF through the first decade and a half of Feller, and the best player on some great teams. Also, he got derailed by injuries, so he would've been even better.

I think these guys should be unanimous, but I'll be using all five of my votes. For the last two, I'll have to choose between:

Russell Millwood (C) - See Matt's argument below. I didn't realize how valuable he was. Defensively, just mediocre, but not a liability.

Steve Daly (SP) - Rico Perez may have the longevity, but Daly has him beat in WHIP, ERA, AS appearances (granted, a sort of nebulous stat) and has a ring. The debate between the two comes down to what you value: the guy who lasts forever or the guy who shows more flashes of brilliance in a shorter career. It should be Daly spent a good part of his career in hitting parks (or at least Montreal was...I'm too lazy to look up Las Vegas.)

Rico Perez (SP) - See Matt's post.

I would vote for a number of other folks if I could. Either Bud Rodgers, Philip Wright or Miguel Samuel would be worth additions if you're not anti-closer. Hiram Huang, Hensley Lawson and Frank Barrett all had terrific careers, and should've been voted in last season if we weren't so apathetic. Please vote!

Hall of Fame Voting Season 19

Here are some of the leading candidates for induction into the Hall of Fame:
Rock Moore - With 3 Most Valuable Player Awards, 10 All-Star appearances, 10 Silver Slugger Awards, 612 career HRs, .995 OPS, all while playing more innings than anyone else behind the plate.  Moore is a HALL OF FAMER.  In fact, he's one of the Hall of Famers that the other guys in the Hall want to get their picture taken with so they can show their grandkids that they knew Rock Moore.
Rico Perez - 2 Cy Young awards, 6th most innings pitched, 7th in quality starts.  For me, he gets the nod over Steve Daly.
Matt Michaels - 2 MVP awards, 8 All-Star appearances, 6 Silver Sluggers, 2 Championships fill up his awards page.  Michaels has the most innings played in CF thus far in the world.  His offensive numbers as a CF are outstanding.
Russell Millwood - In the "non Rock Moore" category of catchers, Millwood might be the best. His 630 homers are the most for a catcher, he is 2nd in Runs Created for catchers.
Philip Wright - Wright gets the nod in the reliever category.  He has four Fireman of the Year Awards and 6 All-Star appearances.
Harry Martinez - 2 MVP awards, retires as the all-time leader in HRs, second in runs batted in,fourth in runs created, fifth in walks, sixth in hits, only a total fool wouldn't list this guy as a hall of famer in his first season of eligibility for the Hall of Fame.


These are my choices, but great arguments can be made for deserving candidates like Steve Daly, Harry Martinez Philip Wright, Bud Rodgers, Charles Perry, Hiram Huang, and Frank Barrett.

How Much Do Parks Matter?

I'm sure someone has undertaken this research far more in-depth somewhere, but I wanted to figure out the averages for my team (the Portland Timbers, who play in a heavily pitcher-friendly park) throughout Feller history. That way, I could adequately figure out my expectations on a year-to-year basis. To do this, I used OPS for hitting and WHIP for pitching. Here's what I figured out:

In the 17 season history of Feller, Portland has won around 53% of their games.

The average OPS over that time is .737, with the highest being .799 in Season 14, and the lowest being .642 in Season 8.

The average WHIP over that time is 1.32, with the lowest being 1.22 in Seasons 13 and 15, and the highest being 1.46 in Season 9. (This season's WHIP is a historically low 1.18, but that's been offset by poor hitting.)

Ideally, I'd like to compare these stats with a team with a similar overall record that plays in a hitters park and has the same number of seasons for accurate sample sizing. Also, they would preferably play in the National League. The closest example, I think, is Montreal, but they're overall winning percentage is higher (closer to 57%, I believe), and Portland is more of a pitcher's park than Montreal is a hitter's park.

Hall of Fame Candidates Season 19

I agree with the previous suggestion about the glut of nominees.  If too many players are nominated "just for fun", it really clutters up the list, and deserving candidates can get lost.
With that being said, here are a few thoughts on they guys that will be getting my vote.
Don Kell- While he was never great at the premium defensive positions of SS and CF (terrible plus/minus play ratio), his offensive totals are too impressive to ignore.
A note about closers/relievers.  I think their value tends to be overrated, thanks in large part to the save stat, so I think we should be careful about voting them into the Hall of Fame.  Also consider that there are about 6 All-Star closers per season per league, so the All-Star appearances (based on a half season of work ~ 40 innings) might be misleading.  I think we need to look ahead to
Philip Wright- Okay, 4 Fireman Awards is impressive.  I also like the fact that he pitched over 1300 innings in his career.  Take a look at some of the other big name closers.  Most of them are under 900 innings pitched for their career.
Bud Rodgers- A big save total, with an impressive 3.27 career ERA while posting a .294 OBP against.  He has two World Series rings to his credit with a postseason WHIP of 1.08 and 18 of 22 in save opportunities.
Hiram Huang-  He ranks third for LF in runs created.  He won 3 Silver Sluggers and 3 Gold Gloves.  Career SLG of .470.  He was successful 81% of the time he attempted to steal a base.
Hensley Lawson- He ranks fourth for LF in runs created.  He won 5 Silver Sluggers and 1 Gold Glove.  Career SLG of .519.  He was successful 70% of the time he attempted to steal a base.

Season 19 Hall of Fame Primer

Before I run down a list of the potential Hall of Famers here, I'd like to send out a plea to nominating owners: it takes quite a bit to get in. Short of a grocery list worth of awards, my suggestion is not to nominate. There are too many worthy nominees this season, and when owners nominate everyone and their mom, it clutters up the voting. I have absolutely been guilty of this in the past.

Previously, only one player has snuck in any single season, but I think that absolutely changes this time around. The following is a list of the top HOF candidates, ranked in order of how I'd vote for them. Obviously, everyone will have their own opinions on what's worth voting on, but I'd say most of these guys deserve to be in on some level.

1. Don Kell (SS, 2B) - 5x AS, 3x WSR, 4x SS, 1 GG, 527 HRs, .897 OPS. To me, it's about his career numbers here. 527 HRs is a LOT for a SS.

2. Bud Rodgers (Closer) - 7x AS, 2x WSR, 1 Fireman, 492 saves (3rd all-time), 3.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP.

3. Hensley Lawson (LF, 2B) - 7x AS, 5x SS, 1 GG, .913 OPS. A couple seasons ago, I said we should have an automatic cutoff for All-Star appearances. I'm not sure I agree with that now. Still, 7 appearances is impressive, especially as many were at LF, and a .913 OPS is solid.

4. Jim Durbin (Closer) - 9x AS, 454 saves (5th all-time), 4.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. I'm biased here, but the 9 all-star appearances work for me. Plus, most of those saves came during Portland's rebuilding years.

5. Philip Wright (Closer) - 6x AS, 4x Fireman, 384 saves, 3.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Four Fireman of the Year awards is pretty impressive.

6. Miguel Samuel (Closer) - 5x AS, 1 Fireman, 270 saves, 3.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP. Statistically, he's the most impressive here, just doesn't have the awards or longevity to back it up. Seasons 3-5, he was spectacular.

7. Hiram Huang (LF) - 6x AS, 3x WSR, 3x SS, 3x GG, .865 OPS, 617 SB.

8. Chad Beckett (LF, 2B) - 3x AS, 2x WSR, 3x SS, 485 HRs, .900 OPS.

9. Pepper Bailey (C) - 3x AS, 1 WSR, 1 HR Derby, 361 HRs, .964 OPS. It's the OPS that's impressive here, the highest of all retired players. Factor in Bailey's position, and it's even more impressive. Unfortunately, he wasn't great defensively.

The 14-Year Plan: Thoughts on Portland's Rebuilding/Competitive Eras

Feller is my first and only HBD world. I started at Season 1 having no idea what I was doing. I assumed a rating of 50 meant an average ML player. I was competitive fairly quickly, finishing with Feller's best record in Season 2 before falling in the NLCS, then hitting the wild card a couple more times over the first five seasons.

By Season 6, it became clear to me I needed to put a long-term plan together. My teams were okay, but I was only mildly competitive, didn't really understand how budgeting and coaching worked, and I knew I couldn't compete with Feller's top teams.

I started rebuilding without a clear plan in place. I upped my college/HS scouting budgets, let go of Type A and B free agents, and had a couple of good drafts to build a base of prospects. After a few seasons, I realized I had a pretty decent core, and I moved them up through the minors season-by-season.

I knew my top prospects wouldn't be cheap forever, so I decided on a 7-season window where I knew I would be competing hard for a World Series. As players like Dan Minor, Erubiel Prieto and Footsie Sanders were reaching the ML level, I was adding FAs like John Tanaka (for a maximum $20m/year that I'd say was worth it), and Jeremy Judd (for around $13m/year, which might've been worth it if he wasn't derailed by a long-term injury). Then I traded younger prospects who weren't going to reach the majors at the right time (like Pascual Vincente, Kazuhiro Gong, Placido Johnson) for veterans, even if it meant having the veteran only for part of one season.

Plenty of teams in Feller (Cleveland, Columbus, Washington DC and, to some extent, Montreal) have managed to maintain very high talent levels for a long period of time. I don't pretend to know how they do it, though I would say they all seem to smartly utilize international free agency.

On the other hand, for the last few seasons I've had as much ML talent as any team in Feller. After that, it's a dice roll. I think I've been lucky to be in the World Series four out of the past five years; very, very luck to have won once, and very, very, VERY lucky to win twice. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to gloat for a moment.

I'm now entering the 6th season of that 7-season window, and I'm finally facing the consequences of the buying I've done the last few seasons. I'll have to start selling and putting Type A guys in free agency, even with low scouting budgets.

My point in writing this: unless you feel confident playing the game the way job, gidoni and mattfurjan do, I highly recommend thinking in focused rebuilding/competitive terms. And it's not like the rebuilding years sucked. I kept players I really liked, focused on defense, and only dipped into the 60-win range twice. My favorite part of each season was the amateur draft. I'm even kind of looking forward to rebuilding again.

Going forward, I doubt I'll try and build another super-team, and try and work on a mix of strong prospects while also competing for the NL West in the MLs. It's taken me 17 seasons to get to where I feel somewhat comfortable with HBD, but it's been a blast every step of the way. I hope our incoming owners have a similar experience.